Horse Racing at The Downey Profile® Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown Coverage
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The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Wynn Prop: Will the Rachel Colt Run in the Derby?
Wynn Las Vegas Casino is offering this proposition, launched on Wednesday, Jan. 25: "Will the first foal of Rachel Alexandra & Curlin make it to the 2015 Kentucky Derby (141st running) starting gate?
"Opening line: Yes +6,000 (60 to 1); No -1,000 (1 to 100)
"Must run in 2015 Kentucky Derby (141st running) to win Yes bet."
Wynn reports there's no change in the odds as of 8:25 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Downey in NTRA Poll
Recently, Dick Downey was invited to vote in the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls. The NTRA will launch a newly designed and dedicated Poll website allowing transparency and fan interaction, via a Fan Index and social platforms. The polls will be a weekly feature of the NTRA, and The Downey Profile will carry results. The start date of the polls is to be announced.
Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues.
MISSION STATEMENT
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and an order confirmation email. If your server blocks it, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com. Then view the Membership Page by clicking the Sign In button, also on the left sidebar.
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A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile focuses on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
Preakness/Belmont Package
After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.
A Little About Us
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for Breeders' Cup. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the eighth consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.
While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile--updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.
HANDICAPPING
We lead off our 2012 Road to the Kentucky Derby with selections by Dick Downey for the Holy Bull Stakes. Go to the Dick's Picks page for the preview. To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on the left sidebar, or click here.
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ROAD WORK
Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf or an off track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park and Woodbine works are on synthetic track except when noted.
On Jan. 26, Blingo worked five in 1:00.80 (4/34) at HOL.
On Jan. 26, Liaison worked six in 1:11.80 (1/18) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Longview Drive worked six in 1:13.20 (4/18) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Night Tide worked five in 1:00.20 (15/40) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Souper Speedy breezed three in :37.20 (3/6) at PMM.
On Jan. 26, Swag Daddy breezed six in 1:13.80 (2/2) at AQU.
On Jan. 25, Big Wednesday breezed five on a muddy track in 1:02.80 (2/19) at OP.
On Jan. 25, Gun Boat worked three in :36.20 (2/13) at HOL.
On Jan. 24, Ancient Rome breezed four in :49.80 (16/31) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Bluedacious breezed four in :48.00 (3/31) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Optimizer breezed five in 1:03.20 (15/25) at OP.
On Jan. 24, Take Charge Indy breezed five in :59.60 (1/28) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Tiz Tee Time worked five in :59.00 (1/5) at KEE.
On Jan. 24, Union Rags breezed five in 1:00.80 (2/28) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Algorithms breezed five in 1:02.00 (1/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Brigand worked five in 1:00.20 (1/25) at HOL.
On Jan. 23, Discreet Dancer breezed four in :50.80 (29/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, El Padrino breezed five in 1:02.60 (3/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Neck 'n Neck breezed five in 1:03.00 (6/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Our Entourage breezed four in :48.60 (5/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Out Of Bounds worked four in :48.40 (2/19) at HOL.
On Jan. 23, Rousing Sermon worked seven in 1:26.80 (1/1) at SA.
On Jan. 23, Spin Out breezed four in :48.00 (1/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 22, Big Blue Nation breezed five in 1:01.80 (17/34) at PMM.
On Jan. 22, Fed Biz worked five in 1:01.00 (9/32) at HOL.
On Jan. 22, Hansen worked five in :59.80 (3/39) at GP.
On Jan. 22, Margano breezed four in :48.80 (10/26) at GP.
On Jan. 22, World Renowned worked six in 1:13.00 (5/8) at SA.
On Jan. 21, Alsvid breezed three in :36.20 (4/19) at SUN.
On Jan. 21, Casual Trick breezed four in :47.20 (3/73) at PMM.
On Jan. 21, Consortium breezed five in 1:01.20 (6/29) at PMM.
On Jan. 21, Managed Account breezed three in :38.00 (11/17) at GP.
On Jan. 21, Mr. Prankster breezed four in :50.80 (10/10) at TP.
On Jan. 21, Russian Greek worked four in :50.20 (23/31) at GG.
On Jan. 21, State Of Play breezed six in 1:14.40 (3/4) at TAM.
On Jan. 21, State Of Play breezed six in 1:14.40 (3/4) at TAM.
On Jan. 21, Unbridled Minister breezed four in :49.60 (26/59) at GP.
On Jan. 20, Creative Cause worked six in 1:14.00 (5/16) at HOL.
On Jan. 20, Done Talking breezed four in :49.00 (10/39) at LRL.
On Jan. 20, Fort Loudon breezed five in 1:01.80 (2/6) at CRC.
On Jan. 20, Isn't He Clever breezed five in 1:01.40 (4/22) at SUN.
On Jan. 20, Longview Drive worked five in 1:01.00 (26/73) at SA.
On Jan. 20, Real Power breezed five in 1:03.00 (24/38) at FG.
On Jan. 20, Stat breezed five in 1:02.20 (9/14) at PMM.
On Jan. 20, Swag Daddy breezed five in 1:01.20 (4/9) at AQU.
On Jan. 20, Three Vases worked five in 1:02.40 (55/73) at SA.
On Jan. 19, I'll Have Another worked seven in 1:27.00 (1/2) at HOL.
On Jan. 19, Liaison worked six in 1:11.00 (1/16) at SA.
On Jan. 19, Secret Circle worked five in :59.40 (3/32) at SA.
On Jan. 19, Speightscity breezed five on the training track in 1:02.20 (1/6) at BEL.
On Jan. 18, Big Wednesday breezed four in :51.00 (30/42) at OP.
On Jan. 18, Drill worked four in :46.80 (1/28) at SA.
On Jan. 18, King Kid breezed five in 1:01.80 (2/10) at GP.
On Jan. 18, Margano breezed four in :48.80 (5/16) at GP.
On Jan. 18, Our Entourage breezed four in :49.20 (12/25) at PMM.
On Jan. 18, Take Charge Indy breezed six in 1:14.60 (2/4) at PMM.
On Jan. 18, Unbridled's Note worked five in 1:00.80 (5/19) at SA.
On Jan. 18, Union Rags breezed four in :49.60 (13/25) at PMM.
On Jan. 17, Neck 'n Neck breezed four in :48.00 (3/25) at PMM.
On Jan. 17, Night Tide worked five in :59.80 (6/29) at SA.
On Jan. 17, Rousing Sermon worked six in 1:14.80 (6/6) at SA.
On Jan. 16, Basmati worked six in 1:14.80 (7/7) at HOL.
On Jan. 16, Brigand worked five from the gate in :59.40 (2/38) at SA.
On Jan. 16, Chips All In worked five in 1:03.60 (37/38) at SA.
On Jan. 16, Dan And Sheila breezed four in :48.60 (3/22) at PMM.
On Jan. 16, Fed Biz worked six in 1:11.80 (1/9) at SA.
On Jan. 16, Mr. Bowling breezed five in 1:00.40 (2/16) at FG.
On Jan. 16, Our Entourage breezed four in :49.20 (10/22) at PMM.
On Jan. 16, Out Of Bounds worked three in :37.20 (9/21) at HOL.
On Jan. 16, Seven Lively Sins breezed four in :50.00 (16/51) at FG.
On Jan. 15, Algorithms breezed five in 1:02.40 (22/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 15, Big Blue Nation breezed five in 1:01.20 (9/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 15, Bluedacious breezed four in :48.00 (5/50) at PMM.
On Jan. 15, Cozzetti worked five in :59.40 (1/5) at GP.
On Jan. 15, El Padrino breezed five in 1:02.00 (17/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 15, Hammers Terror breezed five in 1:01.40 (4/45) at FG.
On Jan. 15, Tiz Tee Time breezed four in :47.40 (1/80) at FG.
On Jan. 14, Consortium breezed five in 1:01.00 (4/23) at PMM.
On Jan. 14, Dullahan breezed five in 1:01.40 (16/45) at GP.
On Jan. 14, Hansen breezed five in 1:01.00 (6/45) at GP.
On Jan. 14, Longview Drive worked four in :48.80 (11/41) at SA.
On Jan. 14, Shared Property breezed six in 1:15.80 (1/3) at FG.
On Jan. 14, Stat breezed four in :49.00 (21/71) at PMM.
On Jan. 14, State of Play breezed five in 1:03.00 (18/33) at TAM.
On Jan. 14, Swag Daddy breezed four in :50.80 (3/14) at AQU.
On Jan. 13, Casual Trick breezed four in :47.20 (1/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 13, Creative Cause worked five in 1:01.00 (15/34) at HOL.
On Jan. 13, Drill worked four in :48.00 (5/36) at SA.
On Jan. 13, Fort Loudon breezed six in 1:15.00 (1/2) at CRC.
On Jan. 13, Isn't He Clever breezed five in 1:02.60 (6/14) at SUN.
On Jan. 12, Liaison worked five in :59.20 (3/24) at SA.
On Jan. 12, Optimizer breezed four in :49.00 (1/55) at OP.
On Jan. 12, Rousing Sermon worked six in 1:13.40 (4/12) at SA.
On Jan. 12, Ted's Folly breezed five in 1:00.40 (4/44) at FG.
In Memory of David Downey, 1947-2011
The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC dba Dick's Picks.
The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008.
SUBSCRIBERS: We're open for business!
All works are on fast dirt except as follows: