Dick's Picks

Downey's Picks on the Road to the Kentucky Derby

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Advantage to Lookin at Lucky

By Dick Downey
The Downey Profile

Posted March 12, 2010

The pace scenario in the Grade II Rebel is neatly arranged. From seven entries, we have one with early speed, one that lags back, and five that can be expected to press or stalk. The stalker that finishes best should win this race.

Royal Express has set the pace in six of his eight starts and could rationally be expected to try to wire the field. Other than his debut, he's been off the lead only once, when he got caught wide in the Sugar Bowl. Royal Express should set the pace if he breaks well from post 3.

In four career starts, Pleasant Storm has trailed the field by a combined 31 lengths at the first call. In the Grade III Southwest, that did not translate to success at all, but in the Smarty Jones, he edged Kitty's Turn for second while Dryfly led throughout. His other two starts were winning efforts in one-turn races at Remington.

Last time out, Royal Express built a three-length lead going a mile in the Sportsman's Paradise, but he couldn't hold off Backtalk on a sloppy track. Assuming he can't hold off the best of the five stalkers in the Rebel, we are Lookin at Lucky.

There's no reason to assume Lookin at Lucky can't run on dirt because he's never tried it. A reason to assume he can is that he's by Smart Strike, whose son Curlin excelled over the Oaklawn surface when winning both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby, now a grade I race.

As far as late pace goes, Lookin at Lucky is best of all if Equibase figures are accurate. In his last four races, Lookin at Lucky has averaged a 109 late pace figure.

Lookin at Lucky reminds me of the University of Kentucky basketball team, which has a tendency to build a lead and then relax, allowing the oppenent to stay close. Let's see if the addition of blinkers resolves that issue--assuming Lookin at Lucky takes command.

Trainer Bob Baffert, whom I take seriously when he speaks about such things, said this in 2009: "He's the best 2-year-old I've had in the last five years." This week, Baffert said, "He’s going to run well. He’s doing great, and he’s a good horse. I’m worried more about my other horses trying to get to the Derby."

Lest we not forget, Lookin at Lucky wasn't foaled until May 27, leaving upside from what he's already accomplished.

Uh Oh Bango has the strongest Beyer and Equibase speed figure in the group, but he's a mystery. Tucked away at Turf Paradise all winter, we haven't heard much about the Arizona-bred, but we know he was a tough knocker last year.

It's a concern that Uh Oh Bango had that 18-day break between his two most recent workouts--or is it? This horse has only 12 recorded workouts since June 27, 2009. Each of the other Rebel runners has a dozen works since September or later. What the heck, maybe he's worth a try. Uh Oh Bango's best-race pace figs are almost a template for the par values in the Rebel.

Cardiff Giant is ultra-consistent. From 11 starts, he's hit the board 10 times. In the Southwest, he was a good value--third at 25-1 after finishing second to the Southwest winner, Conveyance, one race back. I overlooked him in the Southwest, and with the level of competition in the Rebel, maybe he does not hit the board this time. A user on the bottom.

After Noble's Promise and Rafael Bejarano had a wide trip from gate to wire and lost to Lookin at Lucky in the Grade I CashCall, Bejarano said, "I know I can beat him next time.” He won't get that chance on Saturday, but Robby Albarado will have to decide where to put Noble's Promise to avoid another wide trip into the first turn. Of the five stalkers, Noble's Promise will break from next to the outside.

Noble's Promise has the 3.36 dosage index to do what he's been doing, but I keep wondering if and when his speed-oriented pedigree is going to catch up with him. He's by Cuvee, out of a Clever Trick mare. Clever Trick's average winning distance was 6.1 furlongs. Cuvee's was an identical 6.1 furlongs.

Outside them all is Dublin, about whom four things are prominent in my mind. (1) In six races, this large specimen has broken poorly in three; (2) he has raced behind a fast early pace in all his starts; (3) he really has improved since his epiglottis was fixed; and (4) he's working brilliantly at Oaklawn.

Dublin's effort in the Southwest, making up a lot of lengths on Conveyance and narrowly missing, was really good. But a faster finish on his part would have won the race despite his early troubles. He got the final quarter-mile in :25 1/5.

Dublin needs to break well, and he also needs to get in good position from the outside. Inside him, from post 2, Lookin at Lucky has the advantage.

DICK'S PICKS:

1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
2. DUBLIN
3. UH OH BANGO
4. NOBLE'S PROMISE

Post	Horse	ML	S	M/E	Wt	Jockey	Trainer
1	Cardiff Giant (KY)	15-1	G	L	155⁵	C. Santiago Reyes	J. Periban
2	Lookin at Lucky (KY)	7-5	C	L-b	119	G. Gomez	B. Baffert
3	Royal Express (IL)	12-1	C	L	117	P. Compton	J. Broussard
4	Uh Oh Bango (AZ)	5-1	C	L	117	G. Corbett	K. Owens
5	Pleasant Storm (OK)	15-1	C	L	117	J. Court	J. Petalino
6	Noble's Promise (KY)	5-2	C	L	119	R. Albarado	K. McPeek
7	Dublin (KY)	3-1	C	L	117	C. Nakatani	D. Lukas

Super Saver, Odysseus Face Tough Home Team

By Dick Downey
The Downey Profile

Posted March 12, 2010

Only seven are entered in the Tampa Bay Derby, but boy, what a tough race--unless Super Saver runs the way he did in his last race--or Odysseus.

Last year in the Grade I Champagne, Super Saver set fractions of :22.79, :45.78, and 1:09.51, then could not maintain it to the wire, finishing fourth to Homeboykris. En route to his stakes-record win of the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club last November, Super Saver ran unopposed through fractions of :23.33, :46.75 and 1:11.43 before shaking off Worldly and Activity Report and finishing in 1:42.83.

Just after the Jockey Club, connections expressed concern about Super Saver's fast early half-mile but said Calvin Borel knew he had a lot of horse that would keep going.

That said, there can be little doubt that Super Saver needs to learn to reserve his speed if he is going to succeed beyond 1 1/16 mile. With $133,832 in graded earnings, he needs more, as do all of these, and has two races before the Kentucky Derby to earn it and learn it.

Odysseus devised the buidling of the Trojan Horse, won the war and then took 10 years to return to his kingdom in Ithaca. The question about this well-named horse is whether his 15-length allowance win at Tampa will beguile his backers or lead to great praise and a quick return to stakes competition.

There is no doubt he ran well, and only 22/100 second slower than Rule's time four days earlier in the Grade III Sam F. Davis. There is also no doubt that every horse behind him was clearly struggling.

For Odysseus, the answer will come just after they hit the top of the stretch. That's when he took off last time out, but it won't be so easy this Saturday. Still, do you ever find yourself arguing against a point, then thinking maybe the point is made? The son of Malibu Moon has a huge chance.

Neither horse is exactly looking at soft local competition.

Schoolyard Dreams had a three-length, second-place finish to Rule in the Davis. Rule was timed in 1:44.15, barely over a second off the track record. Schoolyard Dreams, who gets Jeremy Rose as his fifth jockey in as many races, again figures to be in the first flight during the initial stages of the race.

I picked Schoolyard Dreams in the Davis before he finished second at 9-1. The son of Stephen Got Even is a late foal, has more room to improve and has thrown two bullet works since the Davis. It will be an article of faith, but I need to stay on this one, whose final odds could be more than his 3-1 morning line.

Uptowncharlybrown, a physically imposing colt, lost ground early and wound up too far behind to challenge the front-running Rule in the Davis--but he did finish up well, just a length behind Schoolyard Dreams. He passed Rule in the gallop-out.

Uptowncharlybrown adds blinkers and comes into the Tampa Bay Derby out of a nice three-furlong blowout from the gate last Sunday. If the plan works, both things will result in Uptowncharlybrown stalking the pace, not lagging behind it, and using his late run to get the lead. Like Schoolyard Dreams, Uptowncharlybrown is playing this game on his home court.

Trainer Tony Reinstedler is fairly hot at this meet and has entered Gleam of Hope and Slammy Boy. Gleam of Hope has been on our lists since The Downey Profile opened on Jan. 20, and he looked to be in great shape winning on the Tampa turf a couple of weeks ago. Both horses need to show more early speed and improve quite a bit to win, but Reinstedler knows his craft, and Gleam of Hope has been working well on the main track for some time now, including a bullet on Wednesday.

Nick Zito sends in Tuvia's Force, and while his race record doesn't inspire, his worktab at Palm Meadows does. He has good breeding, but the obvious question is whether he's fast enough to win this race.

One to two inches of rain is expected in Tampa on Friday, and it should be cloudy Saturday morning, sunny Saturday afternoon. I'm not looking for a deep closer to win if the track is tight. If it turns up cuppy, the early speed could tire.

DICK'S PICKS:

1. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS
2. SUPER SAVER
3. ODYSSEUS

Post	Horse	ML	S	M/E	Wt	Jockey	Trainer
1	Uptowncharlybrown (KY)	5-2	C	L-b	116	D. Centeno	A. Seewald
2	Tuvia's Force (KY)	12-1	C	L	116	J. Lezcano	N. Zito
3	Gleam of Hope (KY)	15-1	C	L	122	W. Martinez	A. Reinstedler
4	Slammy Boy (KY)	20-1	C	L	116	V. Lebron	A. Reinstedler
5	Schoolyard Dreams (KY)	3-1	C	L	116	J. Rose	D. Ryan
6	Super Saver (KY)	2-1	C	L	122	R. Dominguez	T. Pletcher
7	Odysseus (KY)	7-2	C	L	116	R. Maragh	T. Albertrani

Results of Dick's Picks on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby

Updated April 19, 2009

On the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Dick's Picks posted a Top Four for each of 14 races handicapped on this site and at Bloodhorse.com.

A $2 exacta box wager on the Top Four in each race cost $24 per race, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $773.00 for a profit of 130% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 trifecta box wager on the Top Four for each race cost $24, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $1,987.05 for a profit of 491% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 superfecta wager on the Top Four for each race cost $24, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $5,184.70 for a profit of 1,443% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

The superfecta return came in its entirety in the first Road race, the Holy Bull Stakes, as did almost all of the return on the trifecta profit. That's why, when we have a portfolio at all, we want a diverse portfolio.

Holy Bull Stakes

1. SARATOGA SINNER (Won at 12-1)
2. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Third at 5-2)
3. BEAR'S ROCKET (Second at 33-1)
4. BEETHOVEN (Fourth at 5-1)

Danger to Society was seventh at 9-5.

$2 Exacta paid $580.00
$1 Trifecta paid $1,942.30
$1 Superfecta paid $5,184.70

Risen Star Stakes

1. DUMAR (Ninth at 28-1)
2. GIANT OAK (Fifth at 2-1; troubled trip)
3. INDYGO MOUNTAIN (Seventh at 5-1)
4. AU MOON (Eighth at 11-1)

Friesan Fire won at 5-2; Flying Pegasus second at 10-1; Uno Mas third at 12-1; Nowhere to Hide fourth at 20-1.

$2 Exacta paid $76.00
$1 Trifecta paid $317.90
$1 Superfecta paid $3,468.20

Sam F. Davis Stakes

1. FREE COUNTRY (Fourth at 9-5)
2. MUSKET MAN (Third at 3-1)
3. CLIFFY'S FUTURE (Eighth at 13-1)
4. ATOMIC RAIN (Seventh at 5-2)
General Quarters won at 13-1. Sumo was second at 33-1.

$2 Exacta paid $893.80
$1 Trifecta paid $3,391.80
$1 Superfecta paid $12,906.70

Southwest Stakes

1. SILVER CITY (second at 3-1)
2. OLD FASHIONED (first at 2-5)
3. POLTERGEIST (seventh at 9-1)
4. LOCH DUBH (fifth at 55-1)
Buzzin and Dreamin third at 64-1; Flat Out fourth at 11-1

$2 Exacta paid $7.80
$1 Trifecta paid $110.00
$1 Superfecta paid $602.30

Fountain of Youth

1. CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Fourth at 7-2)
2. NOTONTHESAMEPAGE (Seventh at 7-1)
3. QUALITY ROAD (Won at 5-1)
4. TAQARUB (Ninth at 6-1)
Theregoesjojo second at 9-2.

$2 Exacta paid $77.20
$1 Trifecta paid $261.20
$1 Superfecta paid $1,046.90

Gotham Stakes

1. MASALA (Fourth at 5-1)
2. IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Second at 7-2)
3. MR. FANTASY (Third at 2-1)
4. HAYNESFIELD (Eighth at 5-1)
I Want Revenge won at 3-1.

$2 Exacta paid $40.80
$1 Trifecta paid $111.00
$1 Superfecta paid $175.70

Louisiana Derby

1. PATENA (Eighth at 4-1)
2. FRIESAN FIRE (Won at 2-1)
3. PAPA CLEM (Second at 5-1)
4. NOWHERE TO HIDE (Scratched)
Terrain third at 8-1. Giant Oak fourth at 8-1.

$2 Exacta paid $43.40
$1 Trifecta paid $197.60
$1 Superfecta paid $970.20

Rebel Stakes

1. OLD FASHIONED (Second at 2-5)
2. WISE KID (Ninth at 9-1)
3. CAPTAIN CHEROKEE (Fourth at 18-1)
4. SILVER CITY (Fifth at 6-1)
Win Willy won at 56-1. Poltergeist third at 41-1.

$2 Exacta paid $320.40
$1 Trifecta paid $1,910.60
$1 Superfecta paid $13,363.10

Lane's End Stakes

1. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Sixth at 2-1)
2. LOCH DUBH (Longshot Pick) (Ninth at 16-1)
3. BITTEL ROAD (Tenth at 2-1)
4. BRUCE N AUTUMN (Seventh at 51-1)
Top four finishers: Hold Me Back (9-1), Flying Private (24-1), Proceed Bee (17-1), Parade Clown (9-1).

$2 Exacta paid $586.80
$1 Trifecta paid $3,785.20
$1 Superfecta paid $40,944.60

Florida Derby

1. DUNKIRK (Second at 1-1)
2. THEREGOESJOJO (Third at 7-2)
3. QUALITY ROAD (Won at 6-5)
4. TOBY THE COAL MAN (Seventh at 35-1)
Stately Character fourth at 87-1

$2 Exacta paid $9.00
$1 Trifecta paid $6.00
$1 Superfecta paid $36.10

Wood Memorial

1. IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Fifth at 5-2)
2. I WANT REVENGE (Won at 1-2)
3. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Second at 9-1)
4. JUST A COINCIDENCE (Third at 15-1)

$2 Exacta paid $15.20
$1 Trifecta paid $38.75
$1 Superfecta NA

Illinois Derby

1. PERFECT SONG (Seventh at 3-1)
2. MUSKET MAN (Won at 5-2)
3. IL POSTINO (Fifth at 34-1)
4. NOWHERE TO HIDE (Fourth at 5-1)
Giant Oak second at 5-2; His Greatness third at 51-1)

$2 Exacta paid $29.20
$1 Trifecta paid $240.70
$1 Superfecta paid $825.60

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

1. HOLD ME BACK (Second at 2-1)
2. TERRAIN (Fourth at 7-1)
3. GENERAL QUARTERS (Won at 14-1)
4. CHARITABLE MAN (Seventh at 5-1)
Massone third at 10-1

$2 Exacta paid $117.60
$1 Trifecta paid $699.70
$1 Superfecta paid $4,630.90

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

1. OMNISCIENT (Ninth at 5-1)
2. MASALA (Fourth at 7-1)
3. PARADE CLOWN (Eighth at 11-1)
4. SQUARE EDDIE (Third at 7-5)
Advice won at 15-1; Conservative second at 16-1

$2 Exacta paid $441.20
$1 Trifecta paid $950.50
$1 Superfecta paid $6,036.50

Results of Dick's Picks on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby

On the Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby, DICK'S PICKS selected a Top Four for 15 races and a Top Three for three races.

Boxing those picks in a $2 exacta in each race cost $396.00 and returned $519.10, a profit of 31%.

Boxing those picks in a $1 trifecta in each race cost $378.00 and returned $1,175.90, a profit of 211%.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

1. CROWN OF THORNS (won at 8-5)
2. REFLECT TIMES (third at 5-2)
3. INDIAN SUN (fourth at 5-2)
Coast Guard second at 9-2.

Whirlaway Stakes

1. ROMAN EMPEROR (second at 3-1)
2. TEXAS WILDCATTER (third at 5-1)
3. SPANKY FISCHBEIN (fourth at 7-2)
4. CAVE'S VALLEY (sixth at 2-1)
Barrier Reef won at 5-1

Risen Star Stakes

1. PYRO (won at 4-5)
2. BLACKBERRY ROAD (fifth at 7-1)
3. VISIONAIRE (third at 5-1)
4. THE DARP (seventh at 37-1)
Z Fortune second at 3-1

Sam F. Davis Stakes

1. Z HUMOR (fifth at 6-5)
2. BIG TRUCK (second at 9-1)
3. WISE ANSWER (sixth at 9-2)
4. FIERCE WIND (won at 3-1)
Smooth Air third at 4-1.
$2 Exacta paid $74.60

Southwest Stakes

1. DENIS OF CORK (won at 9-2)
2. TURF WAR (ninth at 2-1)
3. SIERRA SUNSET (second at 11-1)
4. ISABULL (seventh at 16-1)
$2 exacta paid $141.80

Fountain of Youth Stakes

1. MONBA (twelfth at 7-2)
2. ANAK NAKAL (eighth at 10-1)
3. ELYSIUM FIELDS (second at 8-1)
4. COURT VISION (third at 4-1)
Cool Coal Man won at 7-1

Battaglia Memorial Stakes

1. YOUR ROUND (second at 7-2)
2. DIXIE DECISION (third at 40-1)
3. BIG GLEN (fourth at 7-2)
4. CHEROKEE TRIANGLE (eighth at 8-1)
Absolutely Cindy won at 19-1)

Sham Stakes

1. COLONEL JOHN (won at 3-2)
2. COAST GUARD (scratched)
3. EL GATO MALO (second at 3-5)
$2 exacta paid $7.80.

Lousiana Derby

1. TALE OF EKATI (sixth at 9-2)
2. PYRO (first at 4-5)
3. J BE K (eighth at 9-2)
4. BLACKBERRY ROAD (fourth at 11-1.
My Pal Charlie second at 60-1; Yankee Bravo third at 12-1.

Tampa Bay Derby

1. WAR PASS (seventh at 1-20)
2. BIG TRUCK (won at 7-1)
3. MAKE ME ZACH (fourth at 57-1)
Atoned second at 9-1; Dynamic Wayne third at 49-1.

Rebel Stakes

1. KING'S SILVER SON (second at 17-1)
2. Z FORTUNE (fifth at 3-5)
3. SIERRA SUNSET (won at 4-1)
4. ISABULL (third at 26-1)
$2 exacta paid $173.60; $1 trifecta paid $1,105.40.

Lane's End Stakes

1. HALO NAJIB (second at 3-1)
2. CANNONBALL (sixth at 5-1)
3. RACECAR RHAPSODY (fourth at 7-2)
4. MACHO AGAIN (seventh at 16-1)
Adriano won at 9-2; Medjool third at 7-1.

Florida Derby

1. ELYSIUM FIELDS (eleventh at 5-2)
2. FIERCE WIND (tenth at 7-1)
3. SMOOTH AIR (second at 16-1)
4. BIG BROWN (won at 3-1)
$2 Exacta paid $68.80

Illinois Derby

1. ATONED (fourth at 7-2)
2. REAL APPEAL (seventh at 8-1)
3. DENIS OF CORK (fifth at 1-1)
4. Z HUMOR (third at 9-2)
Recapturetheglory won at 15-1; Golden Spikes second at 5-1.

Wood Memorial

1. WAR PASS (second at 4-5)
2. TEXAS WILDCATTER (eighth at 9-2)
3. COURT VISION (third at 5-2)
4. TALE OF EKATI (won at 8-1)
$2 exacta paid $52.50; $1 trifecta paid $70.50.

Blue Grass Stakes

1. PYRO (tenth at 1-1)
2. VISIONAIRE (fifth at 10-1)
3. MONBA (won at 8-1)
4. BIG TRUCK (eleventh at 10-1)
Cowboy Cal second at 8-1; Kentucky Bear third at 27-1; Stevil fourth at 68-1)
Tough race. $2 superfecta paid $44,821.60

Arkansas Derby

1. KING'S SILVER SON (ninth at 5-1)
2. MY PAL CHARLIE (fifth at 7-1)
3. GOLDEN YANK (seventh at 13-1)
4. GAYEGO (first at 2-1)
Tough race. $2 superfecta paid $11,068.20.

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

1. RACECAR RHAPSODY (fourth at 4-1)
2. RILEY TUCKER (third at 10-1)
3. SAMBA ROOSTER (second at 17-1)
4. ATONED (eighth at 9-2)
Behindatthebar won at 5-1