Do winners of the Kentucky Derby have factors in common more prevalent than non-winners? They do. The Downey Profile^® has identified over a dozen such factors, and we have determined their rate of frequency in all starters for the past 37 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Winners have a higher rate of occurrence of these factors than non-winners.

All but two of the factors have existed all 37 years of the study. One factor, Beyer speed ratings, has existed for the past 18 years; and the remaining factor involving six major Derby prep races has been applied over the past 30 years. This has resulted in about 7,500 entries in our factor charts, entries that have been checked, double-checked, and triple-checked. We guarantee the accuracy of our findings.

The Downey Profile ranks horses starting in each year's Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile is a completely objective Kentucky Derby Ranking Profile built on over a dozen weighted performance and pedigree factors more common to winners than non-winners of the Kentucky Derby, based on our 37-year study.

The Downey Profile narrows down the Kentucky Derby field, which has had an average of over 16 starters during our study, to a Top Four, thus eliminating 75% of the field. In a field of 20, which is now commonplace, we eliminate 80% of the field.

Building the Downey Profile is a matter of determining which horses have the highest total of factor weights. Twenty-six of the past 37 runnings of the Kentucky Derby have been won by a horse ranked in our Top Four by utilizing those factor weights. The factor weights are updated annually.

Occasionally there is a tie for the highweight. A $2 win bet on our top-ranked horse for the past 36 years cost $80.00, if you bet both of the highweights in the four years there has been a tie. The return on those bets is $161.20.

Along these same lines, a $2 win-place-show bet on our top-ranked horse over the same time period cost $246.00, and yields $341.00.

Boxing our top four horses (five if there's a tie for fourth*) in a $2 exacta wager** over the same time frame cost $940.00 and yields $1,961.60.

Compare betting favorites. A $2 win bet on the post-time favorite each year for the last 37 years cost $76.00--there was a virtual tie for lowest odds one year--and yields only $76.20. Along these same lines, a $2 win-place-show bet on the post-time favorite over the same time period cost $228.00 and yields $209.00.

A $2 exacta box of the four lowest post-time odds horses yields $588.40** while costing $888.00. Additional anecdotal evidence of the predictive nature of the Profile appears below.

Still interested?

*For the first time in our study, three horses tied for fourth ranking in 2006, and the resulting six-horse box cost $60.00. There was a two-way tie for the fourth-ranked spot in 2001, resulting in a five-horse box wager.

**Exacta wagering was unavailable in the Derby prior to 1985. Payoffs in those years are estimated by multiplying the win payoff on the win horse times the place payoff on the place horse.

The Downey Profile is not only capable of profiling those who go on to perform well in the Kentucky Derby but is also proficient in predicting success in the other two legs of the Triple Crown, as well as later major stakes races. The key is to not give up on your horse.

The Profile focuses on its Top Four in the Kentucky Derby. Our study encompasses the last 36 runnings. The average field size of the Kentucky Derby in that time span is slightly over 16.

Let's take a look back at the last 13 years.

2009

Top-ranked Pioneerof the Nile finished second in the Kentucky Derby at 6-1 odds and then ran up the track in the Preakness. He was subsequently retired.

Third-ranked Papa Clem finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby at 12-1 odds and was, as of this posting in early January, 2010, preparing for his second start off a long layoff.

West Side Bernie ranked second and finished ninth in the Derby, but he was then purchased for a large sum and taken to Dubai. We are waiting to see what's next for him as of this posting in early January, 2010.

As of early January, 2010, General Quarters is based at Fair Grounds, and we are waiting to see how he fares this year.

Third-ranked Colonel John went on to win the most important 3-year-old race at Saratoga, the Travers Stakes, in a scintillating stretch effort. Second-ranked Tale of Ekati won the Grade II Jerome and the Grade I Cigar Mile later in 2008.

Scat Daddy was tied for top rank but was hurt during the running of the Kentucky Derby and was retired.

Sam P. was ranked third but never awakened.

Fourth-ranked Any Given Saturday was compromised by post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, was probably the victim of a minor injury during the race, and finished eighth. After recovering, he reeled off wins in the Grade II Dwyer, Grade I Haskell and Grade II Brooklyn before finishing sixth on a sloppy track in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Street Sense ranked sixth but would have been in the Top Four had he won the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose instead of losing it by a nose.

Afleet Alex, the Downey Profile number one-ranked horse, lost the Kentucky Derby by one length. He went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, and was easily the nation's top three-year-old.

Flower Alley, who was ranked third, won the Jim Dandy Stakes before defeating Bellamy Road in the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes at Saratoga. The Travers is, of course, known as the "Mid-Summer Derby." Flower Alley closed out his 3-year-old campaign with a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Buzzards Bay was ranked fourth in the Downey Profile and finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby at 41-1 odds after mounting a rally coming out of the far turn. His owners' partnership subsequently dissolved, he was sold, and he showed spotty performance afterward.

2004

Smarty Jones was in our Top Four and won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.  He finished second by a heart-breaking length in the Belmont Stakes and was retired.

The Cliff's Edge led the Profile Rankings, and although he was fifth in the Kentucky Derby after reportedly losing a shoe in the race, he went to finish second in the Travers Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Dwyer Stakes before being retired in 2004 with physical problems. 

Imperialism  was second-ranked in 2004 and validated himself with a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Third-ranked Borrego had a monster year in 2005, winning the Pacific Classic at 20-1 odds, followed with a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.

Fourth-ranked Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and was third in the Belmont Stakes.

Second-ranked Empire Maker was second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Belmont. He skipped the Preakness.

Third-ranked Ten Most Wanted was second in the Belmont and won the Travers. He skipped the Preakness.

Second-, third- and fourth-ranked Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted and Funny Cide ran one-two-three in the Belmont.

Top-ranked Buddy Gil flopped in the Derby; developed physical problems, skipped other big three-year-old races; and was retired.

Top-ranked Medaglia d’Oro ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness. Bettors gave up on him, and he ran second in the Belmont Stakes at 16-1 odds. He subsequently won the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. The following year he won the Whitney, the Oaklawn Handicap and the Strub. He finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2002 and 2003, and was second in the Dubai World Cup.

Third-ranked Came Home ran fifth in the Derby but won the Swaps, the Affirmed, and the 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic later in the year.

Fourth-ranked Perfect Drift ran third in the Kentucky Derby and tailed off later, only to come back and defeat Mineshaft in the Stephen Foster the following year, as well as winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup, Kentucky Cup Classic and the Washington Park Handicap.

Second-ranked Harlan’s Holiday earned over $3 million dollars before being retired.

Top-ranked Point Given ran fifth in a Kentucky Derby that no one will ever be able to explain. He then reeled off four consecutive Grade I wins: Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers.

Second-ranked Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. He was ranked number one in our separate Performance Points Only category, which does not utilize any pedigree-related factors.

Third-ranked Congaree finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, was still running at age six, and earned over $3.2 million dollars including winning the Swaps, the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup and twice winning the Cigar Mile before being retired.

A strange year for the Profile. While he did not rank in the top four of our base Profile, the Total Points Category, Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus was number one in our Performance Points Only Category.

Top-ranked Cat Thief was third in the Kentucky Derby and later won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, paying $41.20.

Fourth-ranked Silver Charm won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness; and was second in the Belmont Stakes. The following year, he won the Dubai World Cup, the Clark Handicap, the Strub, San Fernando Breeders‘ Cup, the Goodwood, and the Kentucky Cup Classic; and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Stephen Foster.

Captain Bodgit and Free House were tied for top Profile horse and ran two-three in the Kentucky Derby and three-two in the Preakness. The Captain pulled a suspensory and was retired. Free House went on to win the Pacific Classic, the Santa Anita Handicap and others before his retirement and untimely death in 2004.

There’s more, but we think you get the picture. The Downey Profile is aimed specifically at the Kentucky Derby but can have residual application to the remainder of the Triple Crown and to long-term performance.

Whether you're an experienced handicapper or a novice, The Downey Profile gives you an edge in the Kentucky Derby.

We build The Downey Profiles on our Kentucky Derby SUBSCRIPTION PAGE. There is a one-time annual SUBSCRIPTION charge. Membership provides:
--The 2009 Downey Profile Rankings, continuously built as we progress toward the Kentucky Derby.
--Description of how to play the Profile
--Profile Busters Profile and possible Profile Busters
--Our exclusive NOTES following over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races
--Condensed dosage listings for a multitude of three-year-olds
--Commentary about the type of running style we consider essential to winning the Kentucky Derby --Other features we hope you enjoy.

In 2010, The Downey Profile Rankings are published on a continuing basis, starting with our opening on Jan. 20. The rankings will be maintained through the day of the Kentucky Derby, May 1, 2010. Unexpected scratches can affect the final rankings, and it is not unusual for that to happen late in the game. We will stay on top of it so that accurate final rankings will be online on Derby Day.

We also offer the Preakness/Belmont Package, loaded with statistical trends of those two races over the last 37 years, and DICK'S PICKS, at an additional cost.

2010 Pricing/Subscribe

All prices are one-time annual subscription fees. To subscribe, click the Join Now button on the left sidebar.

Subscribe by April 2, 2010:

Membership in The Downey Profile, Kentucky Derby--$19.95
Membership in The Downey Profile, Kentucky Derby + Preakness/Belmont Package--$24.95

Subscribe on or after April 3, 2010:

Membership in The Downey Profile, Kentucky Derby--$24.95
Membership in The Downey Profile, Kentucky Derby + Preakness/Belmont Package--$29.95

Subscribe after May 1 Kentucky Derby:

Membership in Preakness/Belmont Package only (available after Kentucky Derby Day): $10.00

We offer, without charge, numerous free pages containing a wealth of information that's easy to find. Everything about the Derby--in one place.

Take a little time to review the left-hand sidebar, which shows our menu of Derby subjects.

Key components of the free sections of the site are the Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case pages, where Derby contenders are covered.

Dick's Picks and The Commish provide free handicapping analysis of numerous races on the road the the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. You'll also find Dick's Picks at Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

The best way to use the site is to familiarize yourself with all the pages up front, so that the information you want will always be at your fingertips.

The second rule of play we recommended prior to the 2006 Kentucky Derby stated: "Pick one of the top four Profile horses in the Total Points Category to win and back it up across the board if that is your style.  Top 4 horses have won 25 of the last 33 runnings of the Kentucky Derby."

For the 26th time in the previous 34 years, a horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. BARBARO ranked third in The Downey Profile. He was not the personal choice of publisher Dick Downey, whose pick, second-ranked BOB AND JOHN, encountered heavy traffic and finished a dull 17th. BARBARO, in contrast, got into handy position entering the first turn and made a far turn move to take the lead in upper stretch.

Top-ranked BROTHER DEREK dead-heated for fourth with JAZIL, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four. Second and third finishers BLUEGRASS CAT and STEPPENWOLFER ranked 10th and 18th, respectively, in the Downey Profile.

The Downey Profile uses a Base Profile, called the Total Points Category, composed of both performance and pedigree factors. There is a backup Profile, called the Performance Points Only Category, which eliminates all pedigree factors and employs only performance factors.

The fourth rule of play we recommended prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby stated:

"Examine horses that jump in rank from the Total Points Category  to the Performance Points Only Category.  In 2004, Limehouse did just that, jumping from mid-pack in Total Points to a number 5 Ranking in Performance Points. He rounded out the superfecta with a fourth place finish at odds of 41-1."

In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

The Downey Profile ranked Afleet Alex number one in both categories. He was our pick to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He finished third, beaten one length, then went on to crush his opponents in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Closing Argument finished second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He was sent off by bettors at 71-1 odds. Likewise, he did not figure in the Downey Profile.

The 2005 Kentucky Derby exacta paid $9,814,80, the trifecta $133,134.80. Yours truly had Afleet Alex and Giacomo all over his tickets but did not pair up either of those two with Closing Argument.

Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. Not to boast, but we called the way the race would play out, with Smarty laying just off Lion Heart's speed, taking the lead near the top of the stretch, and racing a straight line to the wire.

Both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, which paid $97.00.

Each of the factors is weighted. We can't tell you the weights of them all, or we'd have nothing to sell you. But we are happy to tell you one, and to explain the weighting process.

The Beyer speed ratings are published by the Daily Racing Form and were created by Andrew Beyer, the noted turf writer. The Beyer ratings were first applied to Kentucky Derby starters in 1992.

The Beyer factor is this: the horse ran at least a 100 Beyer figure in each of its final two starts before the Derby.

From 1992 through 2004, eight winners and a total of only 60 starters had the Beyer factor; five winners and a total of 164 starters did not. The ratio of winners to starters with the factor over that time frame was 4.37 times greater than the ratio of winners to starters without the factor. The weight assigned to the Beyer factor in 2005 was 4.37.

This same statistical analysis has been applied to the remainding factors:
--Running style.
--Whether or not horse won at a mile or greater at age two.
--Whether or not horse broke his (or hers, for the infrequent filly) maiden within first three starts.
--Whether or not horse had final two-year-old race in October, November or December.
--Whether or not horse raced in January at age three.
--Total number of career starts.
--Won or placed in any of six specific major Kentucky Derby prep races.
--How the horse ranks in earnings per start in three-year-old campaign, excluding the UAE Derby.
--The number of starts at age three.
--Whether or not horse has dosage index of 4.00 or less.
--Whether horse has required dosage stamina points or has dominant classicity in the dosage profile.
--Whether horse is a dual qualifier. NOTE: this factor has fallen apart in the past 18 years, yet still yields a positive weight even if applied for only the past 18 years, which is how we weight the factor.
--One factor was discontinued in 2006: Whether or not horse has dosage index of 3.00 or less. Due to the continuing industry trend of breeding for speed as opposed to stamina, horses with a dosage index above 3.00 and those with an index below 3.00 are now weighted virtually equally in our study.

In 11 of the last 37 runnings, The Downey Profile has not produced a winner in its Top Four ranked horses. We have examined what happened, and we've determined some threads of commonality in what happened in six of those years. This information is included in the Kentucky Derby SUBSCRIPTION Page.

From our 2007 Subscription Page, Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors."

From our 2008 Subscription Page: "Adriano, Big Brown, Gayego and Recapturetheglory lead the Profile Busters Profile, with each having four Profile Busting factors.

Big Brown won; Recapturetheglory was fifth.

We examined Dual Qualifiers in our Kentucky Derby study. That theory ended a long winning streak in 1988, when the D. Wayne Lukas-trained filly Winning Colors won. Before that, all 15 winners in our study were Dual Qualifiers. From 1988 through 2006, Dual Qualifiers won only five times in 19 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Until 2007, Silver Charm (1997) had been the last dual qualifier to win the Kentucky Derby.

Beginning in 1988, Dual Qualifiers have produced only six Kentucky Derby winners. Over the same time frame, The Downey Profile shows 12 winners among its annual Top Four Profile horses.

Still, the Downey Profile utilizes the Dual Qualifier status of a horse as a factor--though we limit its weight to that based on only the past 22 runnings due to its demise as a predictor--because, in spite of its demise, it still yields a positve weight factor.

In 2007, Derby winner Street Sense was a Dual Qualifier, breathing some life back into the concept.

Dick Downey, owner and publisher of The Downey Profile, is a native Kentuckian and a lawyer who still actively practices in south-Central Kentucky. At the close of 2005, he retired from private practice after 28 years. He now represents the indigent in civil cases--no criminal cases--at Kentucky Legal Aid. He was introduced to Thoroughbred racing in the 1960’s by his parents, Doug and Betty, who took him and their other children to the races at Churchill Downs and Keeneland.

In the 1990‘s, he became interested in Jennie Rees’ writings in the Louisville Courier-Journal about Kentucky Derby winner trends--factors, as he now calls them. In 1997, he first formed the idea to rank Kentucky Derby contenders by assigning a single point for each of a few factors that were present to a greater or lesser degree in that year’s group of starters, and the approach worked.

Curious as to whether these factors were statistically significant, he began an in-depth research project that consumed several hundred hours over the next few years. As time passed, he discovered that some of the factors he had first used could be validated and that others could not be--and he found several more factors. The end result is The Downey Profile®, a qualitative analysis of the Kentucky Derby that has a positive application to the reality of the world‘s most difficult race to handicap.

The Downey Profile has been recognized under federal law and is a registered Service Mark in the United States Office of Patents and Trademarks.

John Cameron is a Louisville businessman who believed that Downey was onto something. In 2002, he encouraged Downey to start up a website focused on the 2003 Kentucky Derby and Downey’s studies. In its first season of operation it was known as kyderbypicks.com. The web site, now called The Downey Profile, is currently its eighth season of operation.

The connection of The Downey Profile to Bloodhorse.com is the brainchild of Ron Mitchell, Bloodhorse.com's online editor. Mitchell provided Downey with a blend of support and healthy skepticism during the developmental years of The Downey Profile.

Downey has been involved in racing partnerships. The first was with Team Valor and the ill-fated Rodman. Since then, he's focused on more local ventures, the most successful one involving Techno Vision, a filly who was outstanding in the claiming ranks in Kentucky, and who was retired with a pulled suspensory ligament after winning five of 16 career starts and paying her own way.

Downey has become completely hooked and attends the Kentucky Derby and Preakness annually, the Breeders' Cup regularly, and along with his wife, the ever-patient Cindy, he regularly attends racing meets at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Ellis Park, Gulfstream Park, Calder, Tampa Bay Downs, Saratoga, and, last but not least, the fall meet at Kentucky Downs. He and Cindy have ventured overseas to attend the Budweiser Irish Derby and the Arc d'Triomphe.

Downey earned his undergraduate degree at Davidson College in 1973 and attended the University of Kentucky College of Law, graduating from there in 1977. He has continuously practiced law since then. As for The Downey Profile, he’s self-taught.