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The Downey Profile 
Kentucky Derby Horses and The Downey Profile® 

The Commish


Greg Johnson Dissects the Derby Trail



Catching the Candy Job in San Felipe

By Greg "The Commish" Johnson
The Downey Profile

Posted March 11, 2010


There's a new kid in town who's coming in with guns ablazin' right from the get-go. Will he be the wire-to-wire threat he looks like on paper, or create a perfect setup for one of the Big Three….I mean Four? It's a story taken straight from the pages of the Wild, Wild West Derby Trail notebook.

The Grade II San Vicente Stakes was more than just a coming out party for Sidney's Candy. After putting away the speedy Tiny Woods, he rolled home in 1:20.91, a time about as fast as anyone has ran out West all year. A couple of good maintenance works in prep for this has him primed for a top effort in his first two-turn dance. Trainer John Sadler said as far back as Dec. 22 that this was the stable's Number One contender. This son of Candy Ride may not have a distance issue with his 1.87 Dosage Index. See you all at the windows, after the race, that is!

An important point to bring up in this analysis is something I feel very strongly about as a Derby fanatic: Stick to Your Guns. Two of my best wiseguy horsey buddies have been all over Caracortado since his win on opening day at Santa Anita in the California Breeder's Championship Stakes. Why get off him now?

Old Scarface was certainly flattered by the impressive win last weekend by Alphie's Bet, who was runner up on that opening day fray. Caracortado's working like the machine he's been, and if this one is your answer to the question I pose at the close each week, then don't proceed with caution.....just proceed.

I'm a little surprised that Sadler entered Dave in Dixie in this one against his "Number One" horse, but with different connections and time running out, here we are. He made a super effort in the Lewis, his 2010 debut, to get the place dough. He's been working up a storm across town at Hollywood Park, and his bandwagon is filling fast.

Did I ever mention one of my semi-superstitious handicapping talents?

Honestly, in my career betting big races, the percentage of times that a horse I back loses and comes back to win his next race is, well....through the roof. Dave in Dixie was my right-on-top play in the Lewis, and, as you can see, I'm not on him here. Thought you'd like to know.

American Lion is another one that might fit that "stick to your guns" thing. His effort in the Lewis was probably better than it looked, and talked about thereafter, considering he bobbled at the start and clearly needed a race. Julien Leparoux hasn't lost confidence and heads West to take the irons again for this one. Steady workouts are on hand without missing a beat despite the weather issues out here the past month. Stick to your guns? Wouldn't you be sick if this pony fires at say, 6-1, and you jumped off his bandwagon?

I’ve never been a fan of the East Coast shipper coming out here for a Derby prep, and it cost us the exacta last year when Take the Points ran a good second to The Pamplemousse.

Todd Pletcher has been saying for some time now that the main goal for Interactif is the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, and so the local prep here is logical. Whether he can turn that fine turf form into a thing of synthetic beauty is left to be seen, but this is a good one, no question. I think he’ll sit close and hope to hit high gear down the lane. Others look more primed to date and on the local surface, and you can’t bet them all. An obvious contender nonetheless.

Erbeia and Stephen’s Got Hope are more than just a little ambitiously placed by their connections. Can’t fault anyone for dreaming, but they both fit the bill of the classic pretenders in here to the tee.

PICKS FROM THE COMMISH:

1. SIDNEY'S CANDY
2. CARACORTADO
3. DAVE IN DIXIE
4. AMERICAN LION


Regardless of the outcome of this race, it is unquestionably a springboard to the Santa Anita Derby, and I would expect to see a handful of the lot return in April for another dance. That’s a different day, a different distance, and everything on the line for some.

It’s a great day for Derby preps, now go out there and win some money!

GOT YOUR WINNER YET?


Post
Horse
S
M/E
Wt
Jockey
Trainer
1
Stephen's Got Hope (TX)
G
L
115
T. Baze
D. O'Neill
2
Interactif (KY)
C
L
117
R. Bejarano
T. Pletcher
3
Erbeia (KY)
C
L
115
A. Solis
R. Mandella
4
American Lion (KY)
C
L-b
117 J. Leparoux
E. Harty
5
Sidney's Candy (KY)
C
L
117 J. Talamo
J. Sadler
6
Dave in Dixie (KY)
C
L
115 J. Rosario
J. Sadler
7
Caracortado (CA)
G
L
119 P. Atkinson
M. Machowsky

















Commish Showed Consistency--and Mostly Profit--on 2009 Derby Road

On the road to the 2009 Derby, Greg Johnson previewed 11 races for The Downey Profile. He made Top Four picks in seven races, Top Three picks in three races (after a scratch in one of them), and, due to another scratch, a Top Two pick in one race.

Boxing those picks, Greg hit the exacta in six of the 11 races. A $2 exacta box for the 11 races cost $208; however, due to several short fields and wins by heavy favorites, the
return was $157.00. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 trifecta box for the 10 races where there were at least three picks cost $186 and returned $399.20. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 superfecta box for the seven races with four picks cost $168 and returned $333.60. See results shown in BOLD below. Greg "The Commish" Johnson and daughter Chloe, both huge racing fans, got out to Santa Anita for Zenyatta's gallop on Dec. 26, opening day.

2009 was Greg's first season with The Downey Profile, and he has returned in 2010.

Greg  and daughter Chloe, both huge racing fans, got out to Santa Anita for Zenyatta's gallop on Dec. 26, opening day.
Yep, that's the runner-up for 2009 Horse of the Year in the background.


Hutcheson Stakes


1. CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Won at 5-2)
2. HELLO BROADWAY (Second at 2-1)
3. BREAK WATER EDISON (Sixth at 5-2)

$2 Exacta paid $21.60                                                                                                                                                                                              

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

1. I WANT REVENGE (Third at 2-1)
2. BITTEL ROAD (Fourth at at 6-1)
3. PIONEEROF THE NILE (Won at 8-5)
4. OIL MAN (Sixth at 14-1)

Papa Clem busted up the exacta and trifecta boxes by finishing second at 17-1.

$2 Exacta paid $76.00
$1 Trifecta paid $100.90
$1 Superfecta paid $338.40


El Camino Real Derby

1. AXEL FOLEY (Fourth at 5-2)
2. CHOCOLATE CANDY (Won at 1-2)
3. MASSONE (Second at 8-1)
4. AQUICKSTING (Fifth at 23-1)

$2 Exacta paid $13.00
$1 Trifecta paid $21.90
No superfecta


San Vicente Stakes

1. LEEDSTHEWAY (Second at 5-1 off a 12-1 morning line)
2. WALL STREET WONDER (Fourth at -- off a 6-1 morning line)
3. GATO GO WIN (Third at 6-1 off a 6-1 morning line)
4. EVITA ARGENTINA (Won at 2-1 off a 5-1 morning line)
Ventana dead-heated for fourth, cutting the superfecta payoff in half

$2 exacta paid $45.20
$1 trifecta paid 127.40
$1 superfecta paid $333.60 and $255.30



Sham Stakes

1. THE PAMPLEMOUSSE (Won at 1-2)
2. SMART BID (Sixth at 9-1)
3. MR. HOT STUFF (Third at 8-1)
4. VENTANA (Scratched)
Take the Points second at 9-2.

$2 Exacta paid $12.60
$1 Trifecta paid $22.10
$1 Superfecta paid $170.60


San Felipe Stakes

1. PIONEEROF THE NILE (Won at 1-5)
2. KELLY LEAK (Scratched)
3. SHAFTED (Fifth at 10-1)
Feisty Suances second at 11-1. Jeranimo third at 14-1.

$2 Exacta paid $14.00
$1 Trifecta paid $36.10
No Superfecta wager


Tampa Bay Derby

1. HELLO BROADWAY (Seventh at 2-1)
2. GENERAL QUARTERS (Fifth at 5-2)
3. BEAR'S ROCKET (Sixth at 12-1)
4. WARRIOR'S REWARD (Eighth at 5-1)
Musket Man won at 5-1.
Join in the Dance second at 35-1.
Justdontcallmejeri third at 43-1.
Nowhere to Hide fourth at 7-1.

$2 Exacta paid $417.40
$1 Trifecta paid $5,116.10
$1 Superfecta paid $34,250.80


UAE Derby

1. NAVAL OFFICER (Sixth at 9-1)
2. DESERT PARTY (Second at 1-5)
3. LELAH DORAK (Fifth at 18-1)
4. REGAL RANSOM (Won at 13-1)

$2 Exacta paid $41.20


Santa Anita Derby

1. THE PAMPLEMOUSSE (Scratched)
2. CHOCOLATE CANDY (Second at 5-2)
3. PIONEEROF THE NILE (Won at 4-5)
4. GALLANT SON (Seventh at 12-1)

$2 Exacta paid $9.20
$1 Trifecta paid $17.70
$1 Superfecta paid $42.10


Arkansas Derby

1. PAPA CLEM (Won at 4-1)
2. OLD FASHIONED (Second at 1-1)
3. SUMMER BIRD (Third at 26-1)
4. FLAT OUT (Sixth at 15-1)
Win Willy fourth at 4-1

$2 Exacta paid $26.80
$1 Trifecta paid $271.80

$1 Superfecta paid $995.30


 


Biography

The year my brother first gave me round trip tickets to the Derby, I went there confident and cocky that my West Coast charge, Ferdinand, was going to get the job done.

Not only did I scream his name outside of the Aerosmith concert on Derby Eve, but ended up dancing the night away with “The Shoe” that night at a little hole in the wall, dive bar somewhere in Lou-a-vul’. He looked me in the eye, half crocked, and said, “We’re going to win tomorrow”.

To make a long story short, I got off him at the window. I really love this game.

Then came that January afternoon at Santa Anita Park, and this big  strapping filly named Winning Colors. Next stop was Caliente Race Track down in Tijuana, and a decent future book bet, and the longest 3 1/2 months of my life.

I remember saying to myself, “Self, if this horse wins, I’m moving to Kentucky”.

The results of the race we know. As for me, I spent 10 years in Leitchfield, Kentucky, and became a fanatic of this race, this sport, this event, this American tradition.

Boasting a not bad 8 for 24 lifetime in the DERBY, I concede defeat last year as well, even thou I couldn't have bet that horsey with your money.

For the past 9 years, I've been known as “The Commish”, not to be mistaken with any other Commissioner in any similar game, but more like the beer guy in those commercials.

The Commish resides in Arizona and manages a West Coast-based Kentucky Derby Fantasy Challenge, providing race analysis and results throughout the year to a very uncaring group of horsey soothsayers.

I finally, after 9 years of heartache, managed to win our DERBY Challenge in 2009, and can now proudly boast my name on the trophy. Right under my ex-wife and my girlfriend's name....I love this game!

You can write me at: greg@thedowneyprofile.com


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