Based in Kentucky. Focused on the Nation.
We Cover the Derby Trail and the Kentucky Derby.
Featuring The Downey Profile®

Our Triple Crown prep race handicapping stories are featured weekly at the Bloodhorse.com Triple Crown Mania Channel.

On our site, handicapping preview stories appear on our Dick's Picks page and on the page of Greg "The Commish"Johnson.

Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues. These stories are also featured at Bloodhorse.com.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Rebel Morning Line. Posted at Dick's Picks and the Road page.


Downey: Advantage to Lookin at Lucky
The pace scenario in the Grade II Rebel is neatly arranged. From seven entries, we have one with early speed, one that lags back, and five that can be expected to press or stalk. The stalker that finishes best should win this race. More....


Commish: Catching the Candy Job in San Felipe
There's a new kid in town who's coming in with guns ablazin' right from the get-go. Will he be the wire-to-wire threat he looks like on paper, or create a perfect setup for one of the Big Three….I mean Four? More....


Downey: Super Saver, Odysseus Face Tough Home Team
Only seven are entered in the Tampa Bay Derby, but boy, what a tough race--unless Super Saver runs the way he did in his last race--or Odysseus. More....


Rebel Attracts Interesting Field of Seven
A diverse group of seven is entered in the Grade II Rebel Stakes, bringing together different stripes of location, experience, background and graded earnings. More....


Morning Line to Super Saver: It's Not a Lock
Super Saver is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby, but he has close company in the morning line. More....


Blue Collar to Meet More Blue Blood in San Felipe
Seven were entered in the Grade II San Felipe with Caracortado, a blue-collar favorite, high-weighted at 119 pounds. Meanwhile, his rider, Paul Atkinson, says the best is yet to come. More....

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Soaring Empire Named for Florida Derby
Soaring Empire will make the fourth start of his career and first around two turns in the Grade I Florida Derby on March 20, according to trainer Cam Gambolati.

Soaring Empire was added to our Worth Watching list after winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in his 3-year-old debut on Feb. 25. Soaring Empire was bumped solidly at the start and rallied from eighth to score by three-quarters of a length.

“We’ve weighed the options and decided to go ahead and give him a chance,” said Gambolati today. “His race here was very good to win after getting nailed at the start and beat a good field. I know we’re a little behind the eight-ball, but they only get one chance (to race in the Kentucky Derby)."

Soaring Empire is a son of Empire Maker purchased for $190,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He won his career debut at Monmouth Park on Sept. 26 by 3 1/4 lengths and finished third in the Grade III Iroquois Stakes going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1. Castro has ridden Soaring Empire in all three of his starts.

“I was going to work him this morning, but decided to hold off because of the weather and wait, probably Sunday," Gambolati said. "Eddie will ride him. Some don’t like the six weeks (between the Florida and Kentucky Derbies), but it happens to fit my schedule for this horse. If he needs more earnings, I can run him once more, maybe the Blue Grass.”

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Eskendereya Leads 92 Nominated to Florida Derby
Eskendereya, runaway winner of the Grade II Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes, is among 92 nominated for the Grade I Florida Derby on March 20. Trainer Todd Pletcher has previously confirmed it is the next logical start for the Derby Future Wager Pool 2 individual favorite. More....


Subscriber Update
The Downey Profile Rankings have been updated. We've removed several horses, and we've added the following: Alphie's Bet, Awesome Act, Backtalk, Dave in Dixie, Fast Alex, Mendip, Miner's Reserve, Odysseus, Radiohead and Setsuko.

At this point, we're in a lull period for the Downey Profile factors. An update following the Grade I Florida Derby will start bringing in a couple of new ones.


Handicapping
This weekend on our free pages, Dick's Picks will preview the Grade II Rebel Stakes and Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. Selections for the Tampa Bay Derby will be posted Thursday morning following today's draw. We'll post on Friday morning for the Rebel following Thursday's draw.

The Commish will handle the Grade II San Felipe Stakes and will be posted Thursday morning following today's draw.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Uh Oh Bango: 2010 Workouts
These are the four horses on The Downey Profile's Looking Good list that have yet to make a start in 2010.

Lookin at Lucky's plane leaves today for Arkansas and the Grade II Rebel Stakes. Bob Baffert trains. Ken McPeek's Noble's Promise is heading to Hot Springs from his base at Gulfstream Park.

Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher,  looks probable for the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby, a 230-mile van ride from Palm Meadows, although the Rebel has also been mentioned for him. Mission Impazible, an under-hyped colt also trained by Pletcher, shipped from Palm Meadows to Oaklawn Park for the Grade III Southwest Stakes and finished fourth from post 10; perhaps he'll be sent back to Hot Springs for the Rebel.

Uh Oh Bango, an Arizona-bred trained by Kory Owens, also makes his first start of 2010 after shipping from Turf Paradise to Oaklawn Park last week.

Both Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise will race on dirt for the first time.

On Jan. 9, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked four in :47.40 (7/47) at SA.
On Jan. 16, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked five in :59.00 (2/54) at SA.
On Feb. 9, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked three in :36.60 (7/35) at SA.
On Feb. 14, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked four in :48.20 (21/72) at SA.
On Feb. 22, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked six in 1:15.40 (7/8) at SA.
On March 1, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked seven in 1:25.20 (1/3) at SA.
On March 8, LOOKIN AT LUCKY worked five in 1:01.20 (43/82) at SA.

On Feb. 6, NOBLE'S PROMISE  breezed three on a good track in :37.0 (2/12) at GP.
On Feb. 13, NOBLE'S PROMISE  worked four on a muddy track in :46.40 (1/17) at GP.
On Feb. 20, NOBLE'S PROMISE breezed four in :48.40 (13/52) at GP.
On Feb. 27, NOBLE'S PROMISE worked five in :59.80 (2/29) at GP.
On March 5, NOBLE'S PROMISE worked five in 1:00.20 (2/20) at GP.

On Jan. 24, SUPER SAVER breezed three in :38.40 (8/8) at PMM.
On Jan. 31, SUPER SAVER worked four in :48.40 (14/56) at PMM.
On Feb. 7, SUPER SAVER breezed four in :48.20 (4/55) at PMM.
On Feb. 14, SUPER SAVER worked five in 1:01.40 (9/35) at PMM.
On Feb. 21, SUPER SAVER breezed five in 1:02.00 (11/22) at PMM.
On March 1, SUPER SAVER worked five in 1:00.60 (4/32) at PMM.
On March 7, SUPER SAVER breezed five in 1:00.60 (2/31) at PMM.

On Jan. 26, UH OH BANGO worked four in :49.40 (62/92) at TUP.
On Feb. 2, UH OH BANGO worked five in 1:03.20 (34/43) at TUP.
On Feb. 9, UH OH BANGO worked six in 1:13.60 (3/6) at TUP.
On Feb. 15, UH OH BANGO worked seven in 1:29.00 (1/1) at TUP.
On March 5, UH OH BANGO breezed five in 1:03.20 (11/15) at OP.


Entry Closings
Entries close Wednesday for the Grade II San Felipe at Santa Anita and Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. The book on entries for the Grade II Rebel Stakes will close Thursday at Oaklawn Park.


Next-Start Schedules of Selected 3-Year-Olds

Aikenite: Grade I Toyota Blue Grass on April 10.
Alphie's Bet: Toyota Blue Grass.
American Lion: Grade II San Felipe on March 13.
Awesome Act: Grade I Wood Memorial on April 3.
Backtalk: Possible for the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 27.
Blind Luck: Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park on April 5.
Buddy's Saint: Wood Memorial.
Caracortado: San Felipe.
Cardiff Giant: Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 13.
Citrus Kid: Grade II Lane's End Stakes on March 27.
Connemara: Lane's End Stakes.
Conveyance: Grade III Sunland Derby on March 28.
D' Funnybone: More probable for the Grade II Swale than the Grade I Florida Derby on March 20.
Dave in Dixie: San Felipe Stakes.
Discreetly Mine: Louisiana Derby.
Dublin: Rebel Stakes.
Eightyfiveinafifty: Grade III Bay Shore Stakes on April 3
Eskendereya: Florida Derby.
Fast Alex: Louisiana Derby.
Ibboyee: Swale Stakes.
Ice Box: Florida Derby.
Interactif: Possible for the San Felipe.
Jackson Bend: Wood Memorial.
Lookin at Lucky: Rebel Stakes.
Make Music for Me: Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 3.
Mendip: Group 2 UAE Derby on March 27.
Miner's Reserve: Allowance race.
Mission Impazible: Rebel Stakes?
Noble's Promise: Rebel Stakes.
Odysseus: Grade III Tampa Bay Derby.
Pleasant Prince: Presumably the Florida Derby.
Pleasant Storm: Louisiana Derby.
Pulsion: Florida Derby.
Radiohead: Florida Derby.
Raise the Bridle: Sunland Derby.
Ron the Greek: Louisiana Derby.
Rule: Florida Derby or Wood Memorial.
Schoolyard Dreams: Tampa Bay Derby.
Setsuko: Santa Anita Derby.
Sidney's Candy: Possible for the San Felipe.
Silver Craft: Tampa Bay Derby
Stay Put: Louisiana Derby.
Storming Saint: Sunland Derby.
Super Saver: Tampa Bay Derby.
Tempted to Tapit: Louisiana Derby or Sunland Derby.
The Program: Presumably the Santa Anita Derby.
Thomas Baines: Possibly the Santa Anita Derby.
Tiz Chrome: Not determined.
Turf Melody: Not determined.
Uh Oh Bango: Rebel Stakes.
Uptowncharlybrown: Tampa Bay Derby.
Vale of York: UAE Derby.
Who's Up: Santa Anita Derby.

--Compiled by Dick Downey


Selected, Collated Next-Start Probables, Possibles

March 13 Rebel: Cardiff Giant, Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible (?), Noble's Promise, Uh Oh Bango.

March 13 San Felipe: American Lion, Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, Interactif, Sidney's Candy.

March 13 Tampa Bay Derby: Odysseus, Schoolyard Dreams, Silver Craft, Super Saver, Uptowncharlybrown.

March 20 Florida Derby: D' Funnybone (more probable for Swale), Eskendereya, Ice Box, Pleasant Prince, Pulsion, Radiohead, Rule (?).

March 27 Lane's End: Citrus Kid, Connemara.

March 27 Louisiana Derby: Backtalk, Discreetly Mine, Fast Alex, Pleasant Storm, Ron the Greek, Stay Put, Tempted to Tapit (?).

March 27 UAE Derby: Mendip, Vale of York.

March 28 Sunland Derby: Conveyance, Raise the Bridle, Storming Saint, Tempted to Tapit (?).

April 3 Santa Anita Derby: Make Music for Me, Setsuko, The Program, Thomas Baines, Who's Up.

April 3 Wood Memorial: Awesome Act, Buddy's Saint, Jackson Bend, Rule (?).

April 10 Toyota Blue Grass: Aikenite, Alphie's Bet.

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our 37-year statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby in the last 37 years.

On the link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

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In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
 
Big Brown, the 2.4-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.


Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth.

Interestingly, Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.


After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from the last 36 runnings of both stakes, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown, and DICK'S PICKS are offered. This product will be online after the 2009 Kentucky Derby.


The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for Breeders' Cup. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the seventh consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the current Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile--updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment Notes on over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

Dick's Picks. Selections for the Rebel Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby are posted.

The Commish handles the Grade II San Felipe Stakes, and his selections are posted.


How Our Picks Fared Last Weekend

The Commish: Gotham Stakes

The Commish found three of the top four finishers in his top four.

1. TURF MELODY (4th)
2. AWESOME ACT (1st)
3. THREE DAY RUSH (9th)
4. NACHO FRIEND (3d)
Yawanna Twist finished second.

Dick's Picks: Sham Stakes

Nextdoorneighbor was a huge disappointment for his connections and for Downey. Kettle River fared even worse. After the following four horses, the only other one we mentioned for the race was Alphie's Bet. He won at 8-1 odds.

1. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (7th)
2. KETTLE RIVER (8th)
3. THE PROGRAM (3d)
4. SETSUKO (2d)

__________

Dick's and Greg's selections on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby are summarized on their respective pages and show a good return on investment. Just click the links above for details.

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